Tuesday 23 August 2005

P1
1000-1230 hours

152
Dynamical seasonal prediction of Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures
Alves, Oscar¹
1 BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
Author email: o.alves@bom.gov.au
Dynamical seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with ENSO are produced routinely by several operational centres. These forecasts have relatively high skill in the predicting SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific, where ENSO variability peaks. In the western Pacific and Indian Oceans skill is in general considerably lower and the extent of potential predictability in these areas is not known. The POAMA seasonal prediction system is the Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal prediction system. It uses a start-of-the-art coupled ocean/atmosphere model and an ocean data assimilation system. The system was developed jointly by the BMRC and CSIRO Marine Research (in Hobart). The first version (POAMA-1) has been run operationally at the Bureau of Meteorology since October 2002. An overview of the POAMA-1 system and its performance will be presented. The system's ability to forecast ENSO will be described in detail. Skill of the model in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans will also be discussed.

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