IUGG 2003 Abstract

JSP11 Geophysical Risk and Vulnerability: The Population-Hazard Interaction (IAPSO, IAGA, IAHS, IAMAS, IASPEI, IAVCEI) Monday, July 7 AM Location: Site A, Room 10 Presiding Chair:R. Singh

TIME [ 1110 ] [ JSP11/07A/A10-006 ]

CERES-WHEAT MODEL APPLICATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS OVER I. R. OF IRAN

Sohaila JAVANMARD(Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), IRIMO, Tehran, I. R. of Iran)

Ali KIANI(Climatological Research Institute (CRI), I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), P. O. Box 91735-491, Mashhad, Iran) Javad BODAGHJAMALI ( Climatological Research Institute (CRI), I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), P. O. Box 91735-491, Mashhad, Iran )

About 64 percent of the warming effect due to greenhouse gas increase during the last 200 years, is caused bay carbon dioxide. The global climate changr will affect all economic sectors to some degree, but the agricultural sector is perhaps the most sensitive and vulnerable. The impact of climate variabilityon agricultural production is important at local and regional, as well as global scales. In this research, the CERES-Wheat v.3.5 model after calibrationwas used to determine the vulnerability of current agricultural management in Mashhad city climatic conditions. In order to prediction of climate change due to doubling carbon dioxide concenteration on two wheat cultivars, Alamout and Alvand, NASA-GIS model was used.The results of the modeling showed that grain yield are increased by 7.5 and 11.7 percent, respectively for Alamout and Alvand cultivars.